New models will come fast and furious in the 2013-16 model years, according to Bank of America/Merrill Lynch's annual product pipeline analysis, dubbed the "Car Wars" report. Bank of America sees an above-average level of new model launches starting in the 2014 and 2015 model years, when 105 all-new models will be launched.
GM will have a dramatic replacement rate, according to the investment bank, including the launch of a new Chevrolet Silverado, GMC Sierra and an all-new generation of full-size crossovers (including the Chevrolet Traverse). New versions of the Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain will also dramatically transform GM's lineup in the next four years. GM's market share is said to increase slightly over the next three years, to an estimated 18.2% by 2015.
Ford will see an above-average replacement rate, too, says Merrill Lynch. It projects that the automaker will have a "solid product cadence," culminating in an all-new Ford F-Series in the 2015 model year.
Despite Chrysler's current massive product surge, the investment bank says the carmaker will have a below-average launch of new vehicles in the coming years. Chrysler will launch a slew of new crossovers, such as the new car-based Jeep Liberty replacement, and other small and midsize Fiat-based vehicles, such as the new Chrysler 200 and 100, in the coming years. Expect an all-new Ram truck in the 2017 model year, the report says.
Korean, European and Japanese automakers are expected to have below-average replacement rates for the 2013-16 model years. In fact, after Hyundai and Kia had a strong product launch for the 2011 model year, the bank describes the coming years as "volatile" for the Korean carmakers and believes there's a strong indication of decreasing market share for each over the next few years.
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