Movers and Losers: May Top 10

May’s numbers are in, and the Top 10 fastest selling models in the country looks familiar, but with even more of an emphasis on fuel-efficient gasoline and hybrid models, interspersed with brand-new SUVs. It’s a surprising combination. The new Honda Pilot seems to be immune to high gas prices in its first month on sale. The Honda Fit and Scion xB forced cars like the 2009 Subaru Forester and Jaguar XF out of the top 10, but both are still going strong, taking 18 and 23 days to sell, respectively. 

After the jump, we discuss the losers and how we calculate the charts. May’s average amount of time to sell a car from the moment it hit the lot to the keys being handed over to a new owner was 62 days.

Top 10 Movers

• 2009 Honda Pilot: 6 days
• 2009 Scion xB: 6 days
• 2008 Lexus LX 570: 8 days
• 2009 Mercedes-Benz SL550: 9 days
• 2008 BMW 135i coupe and convertible: 10 days
• 2008 Toyota Prius: 11 days
• 2008 Honda Fit: 14 days
• 2009 Acura TSX: 15 days
• 2008 BMW 528 xi: 16 days
• 2009 Toyota Camry Hybrid: 17 days

There are two Losers lists. The first one includes models that are either being phased out completely or are leftover 2008 models whose 2009 versions are already reaching dealerships. That may show a true “loser,” but readers asked to see a list of supposedly competitive new models as well, so we broke that out, too.

Top 10 Losers

• 2008 Mitsubishi Galant: 218 days
• 2008 Toyota Matrix: 186 days
• 2008 Chrysler Pacifica: 178 days
• 2008 Mitsubishi Endeavor: 164 days
• 2008 Subaru Forester: 164 days
• 2008 Pontiac Grand Prix 162 days
• 2008 Isuzu I-290: 159 days
• 2008 Hyundai Sonata: 149 days
• 2008 Toyota Corolla: 148 days
• 2008 Mitsubishi Eclipse Spyder: 146 days

Top 10 Losers (Current Models)

• 2008 Mitsubishi Eclipse: 169 days
• 2008 Mitsubishi Endeavor: 164 days
• 2008 Chrysler Sebring convertible: 146 days
• 2008 Nissan Titan ext. cab: 133 days
• 2008 Mercedes-Benz E63 AMG: 129 days
• 2008 Saab 9-7X: 127 days
• 2008 Acura RL: 123 days
• 2008 Hummer H3: 122 days
• 2008 Dodge Durango: 121 days
• 2008 Infiniti FX45: 120 days

About the Lists

For Movers, we only list vehicles that pass a certain threshold of sales in order to weed out limited editions, models that are being phased out, or other factors that might skew the numbers or otherwise inaccurately portray popularity. For the Top 10 Losers, we lower that threshold greatly because low sales bolster the Loser claim, though they could also indicate other factors, like a model being phased out.

Movers and Losers: April Top 10

Comments

[Cj]

I knew the new Pilot would prove to be a popular seller, even though it gets bashed for it's "bland" styling. What a lot of people that just sit in front of their computers, don't know, is that the average American LIKES bland styling. Why do you think ugly Toyotas and bland Hondas sell so well in the US? Because Americans PREFER bland styling over flashy.

[woogie]

When you use the term movers people assume that they are moving in quantity.

Without the sales figures the 8 days on the lot really means nothing.

That 8 days could be for 200 vehicles or it could be for 2000.

So without the sales numbers the low days on the lot do not mean the vehicle is popular.

[Cj]

It looks like the Acura TSX is still doing well too. Kinda sad that the RL is still hurting, though.

[Dave T.]

Woogie
Certain vehicles are produced in smaller quantities than others. It would be wrong to quantify sales figures for something like the LX570 which sells under 1000 units a month 00 which is a success for that type of vehicle -- at $75,000 to something like the Camry which sells 50,000 a month. How would you come up with a formula for that?

When you look at the lists in total, movers and losers, I think the popularity argument holds up pretty darn well.

Also, as the last paragraph states we don't list the REALLY small sellers like the special editions etc which sell in the dozens.

[Dave T.]

Woogie,
Sorry I also forgot to mention the reason behind these is to show models that are moving quickly because that can indicate demand. Meaning you might not get a good deal on a 2009 Pilot right now but the long wait time could mean an excellent deal could be had on a Saab 9-7X for example. So the Impala may sell a a lot of units but that won't really help you figure out if there might be a deal to be had.

[Jason]

CJ, I believe you are talking extremes. I think Americans don't worry about looks if more important factors supersede it (safety, fuel economy, reliability, etc.). I, for one, would consider a Honda Accord or Honda Fit even though they are some of the most blah looking vehicles out there. But, they are not offensively ugly (the Honda Pilot sure is, IMHO), so I will look past the looks and focus on the factors I have mentioned.

[Cj]

I still don't understand how people say a box on wheels is ugly. Bland. yeah, but ugly, not so much. Maybe it's the Pilot's grill that's so "offensive". In person it really doesn't look like much. Actually, at a glance, it looks a lot like the current one. But to be honest, when I first saw the pictures online I thought it was BUTT-UGLY, but after seeing a couple on the road (already!), the design doesn't look bad. It looks a bit unimaginative, but not really offensive, to me at least.

[Tony]

Woogie is definitely right.
Pilot has been produced for only a month or so. I woildn't be surprised if some Honda dealer somewhere in this countly still didn't get one. And of course, when one will arrive it will be gone in a flash. So. I wouldn't list brand new item here. Give it half year and see then.
Different thing with Prius. The demand is much higher then supply. And the only reason why you can find 2 or 3 on the lot is because not everyone is crazy enough to pay $$$$$$$$ for $$$. If Toyota would switch one or two assembly lines form Camry to Prius the balance might be reached. But it is not happening. So they keep on making Camry and Camry's lot life grows and they keep on importing Prius and with current economical situation it's lot life shortens.

[Cj]

The Prius currently isn't manufactured in America (I think it's because of the battery) Tony. The same argument is true with the Honda Fit (which is also imported from Japan).

[Dave T.]

Tony and Woogie,
If you are correct I would say three models above would be impacted on the top ten list as far as not fully in stock/production ramp up etc. That would be the Pilot, the 09 xB and the 09 SL. And these three STILL met our threshold for a certain number of sales to be considered.

HOWEVER, if they weren't getting to dealers fast enough or amply enough that means there was still a demand for them because the ones that DID come in only lasted for so many days.

Regardless, I think the list is pretty darn accurate as a whole. If you can come up with some other way to do it please let us know. Waiting half a year makes absolutely no sense IMHO. That's like saying the iPhone wasn't popular because 6 months after it went on sale it wasn't selling so hot. When in fact it had a giant rush of early buyers.

[Tony]

CJ,
Read last line of my previous post more carefully...

[Tony]

Dave T.
Initial demand is normal. Surely, many people where waiting for that new Pilot instead of buying whatever currently awailable. Once these people are satisfied, the demand will go down unless, in case of Pilot the fuel will go down $$

[markt]

i'm a car buyer for a credit union and i can't find the prius on any lot, i have over 15 toyota dealers that i speak with, and all of them have a long waiting list for it. if i made a list for my region it would be at the top with a zero day lot wait!!

[Dave T.]

Markt,
we're working on a story about hybrid demand so keep an eye out. My guess on the figures above is the Prius going to folks who are on waiting lists are taking that long for them to come in and fill out the paper work.

[Cj]

"So they keep on making Camry and Camry's lot life grows and they keep on importing Prius and with current economical situation it's lot life shortens."
What's more to read, Tony? Toyota currently doesn't build Priuses in the US, meaning it's a lot harder than just shifting production, in order to build more Priuses. It would be different if Toyota built Priuses in US factories, because then they would have the ability to shift production based on demand. Toyota is already doing this with the Camry, because now they are going to start building Camrys in their new truck plant in TX (truck sales are way down, but car sales are up). I used the analogy of the Honda Fit, because Honda doesn't build Fits in the US. They import them, just like Toyota imports Priuses. If demand outstrips supply, not much can be done, because both aren't made in North America. I don't know if you saw the article last week, Tony, but cars.com reported that the Civic was the #1 selling car in the US last month. The only way Honda was able to produce 53,000 Civics was by shifting North American production to supply the demand. They can't do that with the Fit because it's made in Japan.

[Keith]

Dave T.,
What sales threshold are you using to qualify model lines? I ask because the '09 Pilot has only been on sale for a few weeks now and I haven't seen any sales figures released yet. I know it will meet your threshold when production is fully ramped up and dealers have inventory on hand but calling it a hot seller now after only a few weeks based on number of selling days in inventory is a bit misleading. It speaks more about the supply and demand relationship than sales volume increases.

[Peter U. Jonas]

This list doesn't accurately represent popularity. Not enough variables. Any brand that controls its supply well is favored. Honda always does a better job controlling how many cars its dealers get, and that's good for them and the dealers. Short turn doesn't mean the demand is high. It means they always keep supply just ahead of it. Just because demand meets or exceeds supply doesn't make the car popular or successful.

[Keith]

Honda had sales of 53,000 Civics but does not have the manufacturing capacity to produce 53,000 Civics in 1 month. As Dave T. let me know in another thread, May is typically a brisk month for new car sales. But that is more of a sidenote. Car manufacturing is not so simple and flexible that you can instantaneously change factory output overnight. Nor can they or do they switch over entire plants to a new product at a minutes notice. And it doesn't matter if the Civic is assembled in the US or Japan. They are set up to produce x amount of them annually and if sales of the Civic continue like they were in May then supply will become a major issue. Toyota's shifting of production from trucks to cars is a strategic long-term move for them based on market trends. It is not a stopgap way to produce more Camry's until the demand slows. FYI-It is the Indiana plant that is being considered for Camry production, not San Antonio. They have two independent assembly lines there, one for body on frame and one for unibody. They would add Camry production to the unibody line which is currently producing Siennas by taking a shift away from BOF and adding a shift to unibody. It is the same reason why GM decided to shut down 4 truck plants but add an additional shift to their Orion Township car plant. Toyota would love to increase production of the Prius but I am sure they are constrained by the rate of production of the battery system.

[Cj]

Oops, I got my facts crossed. Thanks, Keith it is the Indiana plant not the TX plant. But Honda can shift production within 2 weeks to produce more or less of a model. They have some of the most flexible production in the industry.

[Keith]

All manufacturers can adjust line speed and overtime and number of shifts to raise and lower production to a certain extent. And if everything is maxed out then the only way to increase production is to add new assembly line(s) which is not short-term. They could reduce production of one model to allow more production of another if the assembly line is flexible enough to do so. But even then it is the logistics and supply of components which limits a manufacturer. Think of all the components required to build a car and all the companies out there who are supplying these components. They are the ones who can't just increase their production by x units a day overnight. Not all of them have the resources at their disposal that Honda has.

[Keith]

Dave T.,
I just re-read your post and realized that you are stating the average number of days from when a vehicle is at a dealership to when it is driven off the lot by the new owner. Where are you getting this data from? If it is from the manufacturers then something is not right as the numbers they release are usually the number of selling days of inventory. This number is not how many days on average a vehicle sits before being sold but how many days of inventory exists based on the current sales rate. For instance the Chrysler Pacifica does not take an average of 178 days to be sold once it is at a dealership but that they currently have a 178 day supply based on their current sales rate. Maybe this is why I have thought your Movers and losers posts were not a good indicator of hot selling vehicles but rather an indicator of supply/demand relationship.

[woogie]

It's like comparing the Mercedes on the list to the Mitsubishi. They may sit on the lot for less days but how many were there on the lot.

Mercedes isn't sending SL550s in the quantities that Mitsubishi is sending endeavors.

Consider the number of economy cars that enter a port, hundreds, than luxury cars, dozens. It stands to reason that it would take longer to move hundreds of cars than dozens, yet you are selling 10 econo-boxes for every luxo.

You need to combine days on the lot, with sales data, such as units sold per month to get a true determination of what is moving.

[Cj]

I think this does indicate supply and demand. It's a good indicator of what products are in demand and which ones aren't. This might not reveal what the "HOT" sellers are, but it does indicate consumer demand, which is an important thing to know.

[ziggy]

These numbers are pretty meaningless and don't really tell you a lot - it's just the average length of time a car sits on the lot. Period. A lot of people make inferences about which ones are selling faster or which ones have the highest inventory or which ones have a lower inventory. This is the 2nd month that you've done reports on this for a meaningless statistic. All it does is generate a lot of discussion that has nothing to do with the story. Why not come up with inventory numbers vs sales or something stat with more meat on it.

[ziggy]

CJ
It really doesn't tell you supply and demand. In fact you don't even know what the supply numbers are. For example: the average for the LX 570 is 8 days and the Prius is 11. You cannot infer that the LX570 is in higher demand than the Prius because it's "lot" time is lower. These figures need to be compared to sales numbers to be meaningful.