75 mpg Looms in Car Makers' Future

For automakers who complained about a 35 mpg fleetwide average by 2020, we've got some bad news: According to an EPA official who spoke this week at the SAE International World Congress, cars and light trucks may have to average 75 mpg by the 2030s. That's if the country wants to meet the scientific community’s proposal to cut greenhouse gases by 50 to 80 percent by 2050.

The problem? Currently, all the trends are going in the wrong direction. The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil each day, but that will probably reach 120 million barrels per day by 2030. There are 820 million vehicles on the roads worldwide right now, but that could easily hit one billion by 2030.

In the U.S., transportation remains the primary target of those concerned with climate change and oil consumption, as it accounts for two-thirds of oil use and a third of greenhouse emissions.

The key for automakers will be to plan for the long-term. Whether anyone can predict what a “mpg” will even mean in 2030 — especially if the fuel itself changes to something like hydrogen — is yet another unresolved wrinkle.

Car Makers Could Face 75 mpg Rules by 2030s, EPA Says (Detroit News)

Comments

Should correct the figures.

The current world crude oil consumption is about 85 million barrels per day, not 85 billion.

And the projected world crude oil consumption by 2030 is about 120 million barrels per day, not 120.

Thanks for catching the error. It should have read "million." 85 billion barrels per day, and I think we would be blogging about much, much bigger issues.

"That's if the country wants to meet the scientific community’s proposal to cut greenhouse gases by 50 to 80 percent by 2050."

As long as the head of MIT's Environmental Sciences program openly states that no direct link has been established between vehicle exhaust and greenhouse gases this issue will not be a top priority.

My family is certainly doing it's part (two years ago we sold both our Pathfinders and now have just a Camry as I take the train to work), however until there is someone credible out in front of this issue it's not going to be taken serious. Al Gore is not the person.

Paul -
You are right. Apparently the entire scientific community doesn't count as "someone credible" to most of the populace. Sad.

Paul,

You should get your facts straight. Richard Lindzen is not the head of the "env" science department at MIT. He is a meteorology professor. He also doesn't believe smoking causes lung cancer...he said this in an interview while smoking.

Read more about him here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lindzen

His exact thoughts are
"that global warming is real, and he acknowledges that increased carbon emissions might be causing the warming -- but they also might not."
Source: http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2006/08/30/mits_inconvenient_scientist/

Plus...leave it to skeptics to listen to the naysayer...instead of the hoards of scientists who are in the majority.

Let me ask you. If 1 person told you to get in a car with tinted windows and no known destination and 5,000 people told you to get in another similar car, which would you choose if you could only choose one?

The 75 MPG vehicle already existed. It was called a 1989 Geo Metro. I had one and would average about 74.5 MPG going between TN & MI. It was a 1.0 Liter, 3 Cylinder vehicle (Manual 5-speed)that didn't have air (because the engine couldn't support it). If the wind blew too strong you got to do lane changes but other than that it was a fine little car - as long as you don't hit anything in it and don't mind wind noise.

Good thing you're still around TLB to let us in on that story. Now imagine some So-Cal soccer mom on her cell phone doing 80 on the 5 in a Metro. Can you say soccer-mom-pancake. Or maybe the requirement to actually drive and pay attention would make better drivers.

Naaaaaaahhhhh.